TFL Vsebine / Revija SIR*IUS

The state of the real estate market in Slovenia. What are the prospects?

Na podlagi statističnih podatkov in kazalnikov je podan kratek pregled stanja na trgu stanovanjskih in poslovnih nepremičnin v Sloveniji. Bolj se osredotočimo na strukturnejšo analizo s sestavljenimi kazalniki precenjenosti oziroma podcenjenosti stanovanjskih nepremičnin (po metodologiji Lenarčiča in Damjanovića, 2023) ter poslovnih nepremičnin (Rozman, 2023). Nato na podlagi metodologije Lenarčiča in drugih (2017) predstavimo obete za trg nepremičnin v Sloveniji, ki nakazujejo, da bo dinamika na slovenskem nepremičninskem trgu nekoliko drugačna kot v zadnjih petih letih. To storimo z ekonometričnim modelom za napovedovanje gibanja cen stanovanjskih nepremičnin v Sloveniji, ki temelji na bayesianskem modelu vektorske avtoregresije. Strukturirani metodološki pristopi pri pojasnjevanju dinamike trga nepremičnin omogočajo oblikovalcem ekonomskih politik dodatno, predvsem pa kakovostno informacijo pri vodenju ustreznih ekonomskih politik.

Based on statistical data and indicators we present a brief survey of the residential and commercial real estate market in Slovenia. Nevertheless, the focus of the article is on a more structural analysis utilizing misalignment indicators of over-/under-valuation of prices for residential real estate (based on methodology of Lenarčič and Damjanović, 2023) and commercial real estate (Rozman, 2023). Further on, based on the methodology of Lenarčič et al. (2017) we provide the prospects for the real estate market in Slovenia in the near future. The results show that the future real estate prospects might have a different dynamic than the real estate dynamics in the last five years. We show this by utilizing a Bayesian vector autoregressive model. Structural methodological approach in explaining the dynamics of the real estate market is from our perspective a very important tool for policy makers as it provides an additional but most importantly quality information in decision process with respect to relevant economic policies.