TFL Vsebine / Revija SIR*IUS

The challenges of using a risk-free rate of return in the conditions of extremely low or negative interest rates

Tradicionalno vprašanje netvegane donosnosti ni bilo preveč kompleksno, o katerem ne bi bilo veliko nestrinjanja oz. dilem v praksi in/ali bi predstavljalo pomembno variabilnost pri določanju diskontne mere. Razmere zelo nizkih ali celo negativnih obrestnih mer so to bistveno spremenile. Uporaba različnih strokovno upravičenih načinov ocenjevanja in uporabe netvegane donosnosti tako v trenutnih razmerah lahko pripelje v precejšnjo variacijo končnih ocen vrednosti (ob vsem ostalem nespremenjenem). Paradoksalno torej možni načini ocenjevanja netvegane donosnosti v sedanjih razmerah predstavljajo pomemben element tveganja pri ocenjevanju vrednosti.

Traditionally, the question of the risk-free rate of return did not represent a complex issue that would spur substantial disagreement in practice and/or represent an important source of variation in the discount rate estimation. The conditions of extremely low or negative interest rates have changed this substantially. In the current conditions, the use of various professionally justifiable approaches to the estimation and use of the risk-free rate can lead to a sizeable variation in valuation estimates (all else equal). Therefore, it is a paradox of its own that the estimation of the risk-free rate in the current conditions represents an important element of risk in the valuation.