TFL Vsebine / Revija SIR*IUS

Risk-free rate of return for real estate valuation in high inflation conditions

Pri ocenjevanju vrednosti nepremičnin po na donosu zasnovanem načinu je ena izmed ključnih spremenljivk mera kapitalizacije oz. zahtevana donosnost. Zahtevana donosnost nepremičnin je enaka donosnosti netveganih naložb, povečani za premijo za tveganje. Ocenjevanje netvegane donosnosti ob nadpovprečno visoki inflaciji, ki hkrati pomembno presega donosnost državnih obveznic, je strokovno zahtevno in ni enoznačno. Tako se ocenjevanje vrednosti nepremičnin ob nadpovprečni inflaciji zaradi posebnosti v delovanju nepremičninskih trgov razlikuje od pristopov, ki jih uporabljamo pri ocenjevanju vrednosti podjetij in drugega premoženja. Inflacija pomembno vpliva na gibanje vrednosti nepremičnin in mer kapitalizacije. Ta vpliv je odvisen od rasti najemnin, rasti BDP-ja in zaposlenosti, lokacije nepremičnine, tipa nepremičnine, ponudbe in povpraševanja ter donosnosti nepremičnin. Poznamo obdobja zviševanja in zniževanja mer kapitalizacije. Uporaba klasično ocenjene netvegane donosnosti bi ob nadpovprečno visoki inflaciji, ki hkrati pomembno presega donosnost državnih obveznic, pri ocenjevanju vrednosti nepremičnin povzročila izkrivljene in ekonomsko nelogične rezultate, ki bi močno odstopali od dejanskih razmer na nepremičninskem trgu. Eden izmed možnih načinov ocenjevanja netvegane donosnosti ob povišani inflaciji je, da se namesto upoštevanja trenutne dejanske inflacije za deflacioniranje nominalne netvegane donosnosti upošteva dolgoročna ciljna stopnja inflacije Evropske centralne banke, ki je 2-odstotna.

When assessing the value of real estates according to the return-based approach, one of the key variables is the rate of capitalization or the required return. The required rate of return on real estates is equal to the rate of return on risk-free investments increased by the risk premium. Estimating the risk-free return in the face of above-average high inflation, which at the same time significantly exceeds the return on government bonds, is professionally demanding and not unambiguous. Thus, the assessment of the value of real estate in the face of above-average inflation differs from the approaches we use in assessing the value of enterprises and other assets due to the peculiarities of the functioning of real estate markets. Inflation has a significant impact on the movement of real estate values and capitalization rates. This impact depends on rent growth, GDP and employment growth, property location, property type, supply and demand, and property profitability. We know periods of increases and decreases in capitalization rates. The use of the classically estimated risk-free return in the face of above-average inflation, which at the same time significantly exceeds the yield of government bonds, in the assessment of real estate values would lead to distorted and economically illogical results that would deviate greatly from the actual conditions on the real estate market. One of the possible ways of evaluating the risk-free return in the face of increased inflation is that, instead of taking into account the current actual inflation to deflate the nominal risk-free return the long-term target inflation rate of the European Central Bank, which is 2%, is taken into account.